Influencing the Strip
As Haaretz reported two days ago, militant groups in the Gaza Strip have declared they will stop firing rockets against Israel. The move follows pressure from Hamas, which, in turn, follows pressure from Russia, after Sergei Lavrov phoned Khaled Meshal urging him to stop attacking Israel.
This isn’t a permanent truce, and it’s not seen as such by all contendants. Border incidents, maybe caused by minor groups that do not bow to Hamas’ requests, can escalate tensions once again. But it is a sign of four factors
1) the influence some outside parties still have in local affairs is huge. Russia and Syria probably can do more to stop Hamas than any Israeli military operation.
2) Hamas can control the launch of rockets from the Strip to Isreal if it wants, despite claims to the contrary. It can force its authority over more than just the Ezzedin Al-Qassam Brigades. Even assuming some rogue elements exist (and they probably exist), they can be tracked down and destroyed and the truce maintained, if Hamas is really interested in preserving it.
3) Israel has to understand isolating Hamas on the diplomatic front (through talks with Syria about the Golan, and with Russia) is one of the best strategies in dealing effectively with the Gaza situation. Power is exercised not only through firepower, but also through smart diplomacy.
4) Hamas needs outside support and can’t live alone. It never has, depending on outside sources for weapons, money and equipment. The Egyptian barrier wall, in addition to Russia’s and Syria’s waning support, is a serious threat to Hamas’ hold in the Strip. Meshal states that Hamas is ready to fight against Israel again, but Haniye and the leadership in the Strip know otherwise. The movement has to find another way to fight its political battle.
