Kyria, 14th floor
The Kyria is the Israeli Pentagon and its 14th floor is home to the offices of Ministry of Defence Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Lt.Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, now in full clash. Usually a Chief of Staff remains in charge for 4 years with a possible extension for 1 more. However Barak has already declared he won’t extend Ashkenazi’s term, which is due to expire in February 2010. This appears irrational because Ashkenazi so far has shown to be maybe the most efficient Israeli Chief of Staff of the last 20 years.
His predecessor Dan Halutz had been fired in 2006 after the Second Lebanon War, during which the IDF had shown an inadequacy and disorganization that had led to excessive casualties and marginal results. Ashkenazi instead had brought the armed forces to a superior level of morale and effectiveness thanks to rigorous training, the firing of those officer he deemed as inefficient, and through a work-first, speak-later ethic.
This whole program allowed the IDF to regain its past edge as showed during Operation Cast Lead. On the other hand however his severity and low-profile didn’t endeavor him to the media or that part of the establishment that didn’t like his stubbornness. It appears likely a difference of views on several strategic issues – coupled with a refusal to back down or find a mediation – is at the basis of Barak’s decision; a significant example is the opposite evaluation of the most probable successor to the Kyria: Maj.General Yoav Gallant, GOC of Southern Command. The latter has lead Cast Lead (maybe he planned it too) and is appreciated by Barak due to his more aggressive stance. Haaretz instead reports that Ashkenazi vetoed his nomination.
It has to be said that the current situation doesn’t justify a change of personnel: now that the Iranian menace is seen as closer than ever and the Gaza situation remains critical, continuity and stability of command should be a priority. And it is usually seen as such, as shown by the recent extension of Meir Dagan’s term at the head of Mossad.
This entire affair can’t be simply dismissed as just a case of internal backstabbing: the influence a Chief of Staff has on national security means major repercussions could be felt. First of all, the efficiency of the Israeli chain of command is at risk. Ashkenazi will leave in 2011 but before the end of summer the new Divisional commanders will be appointed; the involved officers – as well as those involved in Ashkenazi’s succession – might prefer to play the political game first instead of devolving their attention to their usual duties only.
Secondarily Ashkenazi’s own authority could be undermined as a result. Will his subordinates obey at once in delicate issues if they feel he is already politically dead? The whole military system could suffer if called into action (in Gaza, Lebanon or Iran) and it could be plagued by command paralysis.
Thirdly, the next Chief of Staff – if coming from a field command – is likely to keep his attention mainly focused on his previous operational theater. Therefore Gallant might look to keep major pressure against Hamas in Gaza (even if not necessarily through extreme measures); Gadi Eisenkot (GOC Northern Command) might advise to be prudent in the south so as to not weaken Israeli positions near Lebanon against Hezbollah; Avi Mizrahi (previous GOC Central Command) could be influenced by his experience in dealing with West Bank problematics to the point of seeing it as the main issue. While the political government usually guides the Chief of Staff’s moves, he is still a powerful voice.
Ashkenazi’s successor will surely benefit from the current Chief of Staff’s good job, but he will also have to care about relationships with Barak, who is likely to remain heavily involved even in purely military decisions. The future Chief of IDF will need to have the Minister’s strategic vision: from measures to employ against Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah’s containment in the north, from relationship with the PA in the west Bank to the most important issue: an eventual military action against Iran. Knowing the next Chief of Staff might help understanding at least part of the approach Israel will try to follow.
